The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has been a matter of international concern for several years. While the ceasefire agreements have been reached in the past, the fighting in the region continues to escalate, with a significant loss of life on both sides. In recent years, there has been intense fighting around the town of Bakmut, and it’s possible that the Ukrainian forces may retreat from there in the coming weeks. However, it is unlikely that this would make much of a difference to Russia’s position strategically, given the scale of the conflict.
In this article, we will discuss Russia’s strategy in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the concerns in the West regarding the potential of Russia’s Air Force intervention, the impact of the conflict on Russia’s economy, and the possible outcomes of the war.
It is likely that Vladimir Putin has reconciled himself to the fact that there are no quick wins in this war. The man who runs the Wagner mercenary group has said he expects it to take another one and a half to two years just to recapture the rest of Donbass. The expectation is that Valerie Garasimov, the man who runs the Russian army, will launch some kind of spring offensive.
What we are seeing at the moment is a war of attrition with not very much movement on either side. It’s difficult to see how Russia scales that up in any particularly dramatic fashion. There are concerns in the West that it might bring its Air Force into play in a way that it hasn’t yet in this war. However, Ukraine has also developed pretty good air defenses at this stage. As a result, we’ll have to see what difference that would make.
As long as Putin can keep his land Corridor to Crimea, he might be happy to engage the Ukrainians in a long grinding War of Attrition in the hope that eventually, the West will Tire of providing support. Putin has created this patriotic narrative of “you’re either with us or against us,” “we must protect Russians wherever they are,” and “the West is out to get us.” These are tropes that are easy for people to latch onto, particularly the millions of people who live in the regions who don’t earn all that much and who believe what they see on state TV.
Impact of the Conflict on Russia’s Economy:
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has had a significant impact on Russia’s economy. With Western investors leaving the country, there has been a snapping up of Assets. It has a slight 90s feel to it now, and that might develop further. Russia in five years’ time might look very different to how it does now.
Foreign investments in Russia have decreased, and the country is facing increased sanctions from the West. However, Putin has the support of the elites who don’t really have any other option but to sink or swim with him. There are disputes of an operational character really competition over assets or over positions, but nothing that would undermine the unity of the elites. However, it’s important to watch the loud patriotic ultra-nationalist camp who make a lot of noise on social media, who are quite critical of the armed forces and sometimes even of the Kremlin.
Possible Outcomes of the War:
While it’s difficult to predict the outcome of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, it’s clear that it will have significant repercussions for Russia’s domestic and international policies. Domestically, the spirit of patriotism burns bright, and Putin pours fuel onto those flames every time he gives a speech. People believe his propaganda, and the economy is doing better than was expected this time a year ago.
However, internationally, Russia is isolated, and it’s uncertain how long Putin can maintain his position. If he loses Crimea, then that might be another question, and it’s unclear what he would do in that scenario. Bearing in mind he’s a 70-year-old man, and anything could happen, but at the moment, domestically, he’s in a pretty strong position, and people believe that this conflict is for the long haul.
Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the U.S., said that Putin had already lost strategically, operationally, and tactically. However, it’s unlikely that the man in the Kremlin sees it that way. It’s possible that Putin may be willing to continue the war for a long time, hoping that eventually, the West will tire of providing support.
In conclusion, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has been a matter of international concern for several years. Russia’s strategy in the conflict is to engage the Ukrainians in a long grinding War of Attrition, hoping that eventually, the West will tire of providing support. Putin has created a patriotic narrative that resonates with many Russians, and he has the support of the elites.
The conflict has had a significant impact on Russia’s economy, and the country is facing increased sanctions from the West. If Putin loses Crimea, that could be a significant blow to his position. However, at the moment, domestically, he’s in a strong position, and people believe that this conflict is for the long haul.
It’s difficult to predict the outcome of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but it’s clear that it will have significant repercussions for Russia’s domestic and international policies. The conflict could escalate, or it could drag on for several more years, leading to more loss of life and economic hardship. It’s essential to keep a close eye on the situation and to support efforts to find a peaceful solution to the conflict.